Gauging economic momentum has been a struggle in Asia, as the trends of easing supply chains and rebounding tourism crash into that of a tightening monetary policy. To break through the noise, Oxford Economics developed new Activity Trackers that combine traditional inputs of timely activity data with a daily sentiment reading, constructed by Penta using natural language processing. The inclusion of Penta’s sentiment data improves the fit of the models, making them more accurate, and the data’s daily frequency enables Oxford Economics to produce an accurate forecast long before any survey data is released.
Key findings:
- Overall, economic momentum in emerging market Asia is on a softer trend in Q2, supporting the view of easing underlying inflationary pressures.
- China’s economic rebound continued more recently, with the tracker touching 9% y/y in April, compared to 4.5% growth in Q1, however the underlying momentum is uneven.
- In Thailand, activity looks to be growing steadily, with the tracker in April similar to Q1, suggesting the recovery maintained momentum after decent growth last quarter, albeit at a touch slower pace.
Read the full report here
Penta and Oxford Economics’ partnership delivers real-time sentiment data that exhibits changes in market sentiment. Learn more how Penta’s cutting-edge intelligence techniques and industry expertise can deliver actionable insights and drive measurable impact for your business here.
